Cricket in-play betting tips: Pakistan v England third Test latest odds and advice

Day three betting update

1pt England to win the third Test at 4/1 (General)

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Before a ball was bowled in this series-deciding third Test, it was widely agreed that winning the toss and batting first on a pitch sure to deteriorate would be absolutely crucial.

England won that toss and looked firmly in control when reducing Pakistan to 177-7 on day two, only for Saud Shakeel's brilliant century to hand the hosts a 77-run lead at the change of innings.

By the close of play, that lead was down to 53, but at the cost of three wickets for England, including the big one of the in-form Ben Duckett.

England find themselves with their backs to the wall now, but things should get easier if they can bat well in the first hour on Saturday, given how batting has become much easier all throughout the match once the new ball has lost some of its hardness.

Moreover, Duckett apart, England's key men in the series so far have been Joe Root and Harry Brook – both not out overnight – while Jamie Smith batted so well for his 89 on day one.

As is so often the case, much responsibility rests on the shoulders of Root, but as I've pointed out many times before, his record in the second innings of Test matches is outstanding.

With skipper Ben Stokes always at his best with something to prove – and his record in Asia certainly leaves him with a point to prove right now – England won't feel they are out of this.

One of the hallmarks of the Bazball era has been England's ability to change the course of matches in a session or two, often turning the market on its head.

England traded at bigger than 9/2 at one stage before winning the first Test in Multan, and given Pakistan's poor recent record in the second innings, and with batting last still expected to prove a big disadvantage, I'm happy to chance the visitors again.

4/1 is available across the board, though those who play on the exchanges might prefer to set up a back to lay on England, placing an order to get the initial stake out at something in the region of 2.5.

I don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility that England at least give Pakistan a scare over the course of the rest of the game, so that looks the most sensible option at this stage.

Posted at 1410 BST on 25/10/24

Day two betting update

No recommended bets

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Bookmakers have the third Test as a choice affair, with the situation finely poised in Rawalpindi after Jamie Smith's brilliant counter-attacking 89 hauled England to a first innings total of 267.

Three late wickets for the tourists ensured they finished the day just about on top, though the fact Pakistan will have to bat last on a dry pitch already spinning and displaying considerable signs of low bounce will be the main reason for optimism in the England camp.

This pitch won't get any easier to a bat on, though I'm not sure it's quite the minefield England's top order struggles before Lunch suggests it is, and there is still much to play for.

We're already heavily with Jack Leach from the pre-match preview, so an early wicket from the Somerset spinner was a positive start, and he should continue to grow into the game the more the pitch spins.

With Pakistan resuming on 73-3, England will be hopeful of claiming a first-innings lead, and I did consider taking the 2/1 with Sky Bet for Pakistan to score under 225 runs in their first innings. Perhaps more interesting is 5/1 for under 175 innings runs.

As we've seen plenty of times in the series already, Pakistan can quickly lose wickets in clusters. Equally, that tail of theirs has proven capable of wagging, and we were on the end of a tough beat in the same market in Multan last week.

Moreover, I find myself coming back to the view that for tomorrow at least, it should still be possible to make runs on a wicket that has historically been one of the best in Pakistan.

It will get worse, of course, but perhaps that's one for days three and day four, should we get that far, and the third and fourth innings.

For now, we'll sit tight and hope Leach can get among the wickets on Friday.

Posted at 1415 BST on 24/10/24

Related links

• Paul Krishnamurty's Test cricket betting masterclass

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