Today's Timeform Horse Racing Tips at Cheltenham
Check out Timeform's top-rated horse in every race at Cheltenham on Thursday, plus a ratings choice, big improver and Flag to note.
The Ratings Choice
Teahupoo - 15:30 Cheltenham
Teahupoo is only 1 lb clear of Sire du Berlais at the head of Timeform's ratings for the Stayers' Hurdle but he seems rock solid and there are a lack of potential improvers in the line-up.
Teahupoo looked at least as good as ever when making a winning return in the Hatton's Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December, inflicting a first defeat on Impaire et Passe, and he has been saved for this since as he has an excellent record when fresh.
The other positive for Teahupoo is the testing conditions. He ran well when a close-up third behind stablemate Sire du Berlais in the Stayers' Hurdle on ground considered good to soft by Timeform, but he acts especially well on soft and heavy going so the recent rain has been in his favour.
The Big Improver
Grey Dawning - 13:30 Cheltenham
Grey Dawning had to settle for second behind Ginny's Destiny when the pair met in a novice chase over the extended two and a half miles here in December but he came out best at the weights as he was beaten only three-quarters of a length while conceding 3 lb, and the result would probably have been different in any case had he not made a bad error at the second last when looming up.
Grey Dawning made amends in style in the Grade 2 Hampton Novices' Chase at Warwick four weeks later, however, as he stormed 14 lengths clear after jumping accurately and travelling fluently through that three-miler.
It's been notable how strong Grey Dawning has been at the end of his races this season (with the exception of on his return when he probably needed the run) and he could yet have more to offer and develop into a top-class chaser.
The Timeform Flag
Theatre Man - 16:10 Cheltenham
Flags: Horse In Focus, Top-Rated
Theatre Man is still searching for a first win over fences but he has shaped nicely on all three starts since going chasing and has increased his Timeform rating with each appearance.
He was no match for Ginny's Destiny in a typically strong edition of the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase over this course and distance on Trials Day but he caught the eye staying on strongly up the hill in second.
That race has already started to work out well and Theatre Man, who is only 3 lb higher here, looks like a well-handicapped horse with more still to offer.
At-a-glance guide
13:30 - Turners Novices' Chase
Top-Rated: Grey Dawning (1 lb clear)
Pace Forecast: Even
Specific Pace Hint: Hold-up horses normally aren’t favoured at this trip here and the pace forecast suggests GINNY'S DESTINY (IRE) should still be better placed than LETSBECLEARABOUTIT (IRE) to take advantage.
Individual Price Hint: FACILE VEGA (IRE) can be expected to race prominently but despite the likely pace scenario has a record of getting turned over after trading much lower than Betfair SP.
14:10 - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle
Top-Rated: Cleatus Poolaw (1 lb clear)
Pace Forecast: Very strong
Specific Pace Hint: On the assumption that the gallop will be an end-to-end one things point towards GABBYS CROSS (IRE) and not CLEATUS POOLAW holding the advantage.
Individual Price Hint: LE MILOS seems likely to take up a position at the back so given the expected pace forecast his record of winning when trading much higher than Betfair SP looks significant.
14:50 - Ryanair Chase
Top-Rated: Banbridge (1 lb clear)
Pace Forecast: Strong
Specific Pace Hint: Those that race prominently at this trip here are usually the ones to side with but the predicted pace is a very strong one and will probably be to the detriment of STAGE STAR (IRE) while being good for FIL DOR (FR).
Individual Price Hint: FIL DOR (FR) can be expected to race towards the rear so in view of how things promise to unfold has a good chance of trading much higher than Betfair SP as he has done before in a similar situation.
15:30 - Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle
Top-Rated: Teahupoo (1 lb clear)
Pace Forecast: Very strong
Specific Pace Hint: This race promises to be run at a very strong pace so everything points to SIRE DU BERLAIS (FR) being favoured much more than FLOORING PORTER (IRE) in view of hold-up horses usually being favoured here at this trip here anyway.
Individual Price Hint: SIRE DU BERLAIS (FR) usually races off the speed so in view of the anticipated pace forecast it's interesting to note he has a good record winning when trading much higher than Betfair SP.
16:10 - TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase
Top-Rated: Theatre Man (1 lb clear)
Pace Forecast: Extreme
Specific Pace Hint: The predicted very strong pace means expectations for THEATRE MAN (IRE) should be downgraded while those of CREBILLY (IRE) should be upgraded.
Individual Price Hint: IN EXCELSIS DEO (FR) was beaten last time out when trading at a quarter or less of his starting Betfair SP.
16:50 - Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle
Top-Rated: Brighterdaysahead (1 lb clear)
Pace Forecast: Very strong
Specific Pace Hint: Horses ridden with restraint have a statistically better record at this trip here than those ridden prominently so with the pace expected to be unrelenting the scenario should suit MAJESTIC FORCE (IRE) and not JADE DE GRUGY (FR).
Individual Price Hint: BIRDIE OR BUST (IRE) traded at least twice her starting Betfair SP when winning last time out.
17:30 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Chase
Top-Rated: Inothewayurthinkin (1 lb clear)
Pace Forecast: Even
Specific Pace Hint: So long as the leaders don’t go crazy WHERE IT ALL BEGAN (IRE) promises to be better placed than INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN (IRE) given what we know about how races at this trip here round here usually pan out.
Individual Price Hint: CLOUDY GLEN (IRE) can be expected to race close up but even given our pace calculations has lost out before after trading much lower than Betfair SP.
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