Boxing betting tips: Jack Catterall versus Regis Prograis live on DAZN

Boxing betting tips: Saturday October 26

1pt Regis Prograis to be knocked down at 2/1 (William Hill)

1pt Reece Bellotti to win by decision at 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

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Boxing makes its debut at Manchester’s new Co-op Live Arena on Saturday night as Jack Catterall takes on Regis Prograis, live on DAZN.

Former two-time world champion Prograis (29-2) is best known to fans on these shores for his brilliant battle with Josh Taylor in London exactly five years to the day. In a high-quality final of the World Boxing Super Series, the two unbeaten men put on one of the best fights on UK soil in recent years and Taylor prevailed by majority decision.

Catterall (29-1) is also strongly linked with Taylor having shared 24 rounds with the Scotsman. Most observers felt Catterall had pulled off a huge shock when they first met in February 2022, only for Taylor to get the nod from the judges and the fallout from that controversial decision was pretty nasty. Catterall finally got his chance to right that ‘wrong’ in May this year and he did just that, claiming a unanimous decision in a Fight of the Year contender.

Veteran Prograis not the force of old

Taking nothing away from Catterall, but the feeling is he faced a slightly faded version of Taylor, and the same could be said of Prograis at this stage of his career. The bookies certainly think so, with the American available at 7/2 and Catterall no better than 1/4. The odds would have looked very different if this fight had taken place a few years ago, but the recent evidence suggests Prograis, who is now 35, might not quite be the force of old.

The man from New Orleans bounced back from the Taylor defeat with four straight stoppages, including an 11th round victory over Jose Zapeda to claim the WBC super lightweight title. However, he looked poor when edging a split decision over Danielito Zorrilla in what was expected to be a routine defence, before losing a shutout to Devin Haney last time. There is no shame in coming up short against Haney, a world class operator who was unbeaten at the time, but Prograis was never in the fight and was dropped in the third on his way to losing every round.

Prograis now returns to Britain knowing his future at the top table is very much on the line, so he needs to roll back the years to upset the local favourite here.

Timing right for classy Catterall

The Chorley-born Catterall deserves this homecoming after his brilliant victory over Taylor earlier in the year. ‘El Gato’ was superb in the opening half of that highly-anticipated rematch, as he dominated behind his excellent jab and walked his man on to plenty of stiff counters. Taylor ramped up the pressure after the halfway mark, though, and came on strong down the stretch. However, just as Taylor was pouring it on in the 11th session, Catterall turned the tide with a huge left hand and he closed the show in style.

As well having a strong and effective jab, Catterall is smart fighter who controls the distance very well and regularly makes his opponents pay for falling short by making them eat hard counters. He is also tough to hit cleanly, as he tucks up nicely behind his shoulder-roll defence and presents a small target to aim at. The one chink in his armour may be his lack of ability to finish opponents when he has them hurt, and you need to go back to April 2019 for his last stoppage victory.

In his pomp, Prograis was a hurtful puncher who applied smart pressure and was a real offensive whirlwind. However, his feet have slowed, and his output has dropped in recent years, so he doesn’t appear the potent attacking force he once was. Timing is everything in boxing and, as was the case when he came up against Taylor, it appears this has come at a good time for Catterall.

The last thing a fighter loses is his power and Prograis can certainly do damage if he can land his heavy right hand, but doing so maybe a problem. He was chasing shadows all night against the fleet-footed Haney and while Catterall may not be the mover that Haney is, finding a home for his power shots could still be very tricky for the visitor.

If Prograis is even further removed from his best than initially thought, then a Catterall stoppage is possible, but his lack of victories inside the distance when taking on good opposition is the concern on that front. With that in mind, everything points to Catterall winning by decision here, possibly proving too smart and too fresh for the older man. However, that outcome is only a best price of 4/7 and there is no value to be had there.

In trying to find something at a more appealing price, I am drawn to the 2/1 available for Prograis to be knocked down. The American has been dropped in his last two fights, even if the referee didn’t give it as a knockdown in the Zorrilla fight, and he was rocked on quite a few occasions against Haney, who certainly isn’t noted for his punching power. Whether Catterall can finish the job is another matter, but he it’s not hard to see him timing one of his sharp counters well enough to put Prograis on the canvas at some point.

Decision time for Bellotti

Reece Bellotti defends his British and Commonwealth super featherweight belts against Michael Gomez Jnr in a fight that could well steal the show.

Both men like to throw plenty of leather and are usually in exciting contests, with this one unlikely to be any different.

Bellotti is enjoying a real Indian Summer and has looked rejuvenated since losing four out of five outings between late 2018 and the summer of 2021. They came in hot company against the likes of Jordan Gill and subsequent world champion Ray Ford, though, and he has shown his experience back on the domestic scene with five straight victories.

After handing Aqib Fiaz his first loss 12 months ago to claim the Commonwealth strap, Bellotti did the same to British champion Liam Dillon (UD) and then widely outpointed Levi Giles when last seen in July. That is the same Giles that pushed Gomez very hard over 10 rounds last year, but that doesn’t mean this will be easy for the champion.

There is sure to be plenty of support for Manchester-based Gomez, as was the case when he stopped Kane Baker in six rounds in his home city six months ago. The noisy crowd could spur Gomez on to a big performance, but Bellotti is a marked step up from Baker, who was 19-10-2 at the time.

The champion has all the experience and pedigree here, having mixed in much better company and he arrives in fine form to boot. Once all about his punching power, ‘Bomber’ Bellotti is a much more rounded fighter these days and has displayed his boxing ability more often of late. It should be exciting and there may be some tough moments for Bellotti, but I fancy him to register a third decision victory on the bounce at 23/10.

Posted at 1110 BST on 25/10/24

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