Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois betting tips: Boxing preview and best bets for PPV heavyweight title fight plus undercard tips

Boxing betting tips: Joshua v Dubois fight night

2pts Anthony Joshua to win in round 7-12 at 2/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

3pts Hamzah Sheeraz to win in rounds 1-6 at 6/4 (Sky Bet, Bet365)

1pt Josh Warrington to win at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

| |

For boxing fans on these shores, it doesn’t come much bigger than the excellent Riyadh Season-backed card at Wembley Stadium on Saturday night.

In front of a record-breaking 96,000 fans, two Brits face each other for a version of the world heavyweight title, with a tremendous undercard to boot and there is even a performance from Liam Gallagher thrown in there for good measure.

I’ll spare you the Oasis puns and get straight into the main event, because Anthony Joshua versus Daniel Dubois is a fascinating clash between a pair of in-form punchers.

They are both big, athletic heavyweights with fight-ending power in either fist and the timing of this fight could not be better. For both have endured troubled periods in their careers and are now enjoying a resurgence after switching trainers in recent years. Following two big wins apiece in Saudi Arabia, it seems fitting that they headline Turki Alalshikh’s first venture on UK soil.

Joshua v Dubois: Big fight details and TV coverage

• When and where: Wembley Stadium on Saturday Sept 21
• Start time: Undercard 1815 BST, Main Event approx 2300 BST
• TV channel and cost: Sky Sports Box Office (£19.95) and TNT Sports Box Office (£19.99)

It’s no secret that Joshua (28-3) became a lot more calculated and safety-first following his shock knockout defeat to Andy Ruiz in 2019. While he regained his belts in the rematch later that year, the Watford man was clearly less willing to engage and this change in mindset was highlighted in his back-to-back points losses to Oleksandr Usyk, when ‘AJ’ tried to outbox the master boxer.

However, there were more promising signs when stopping Robert Helenius (KO7) last summer, before beating Otto Wallin into submission after five sessions in December and then flattening MMA star Francis Ngannou inside two rounds earlier this year. All those wins came under the guidance of coach Ben Davison, who has got his charge fully committing to his attacks again. After looking tentative for so long, Joshua is now punching through the target again and making the most of his physical attributes.

After rapidly rising the ranks with 14 knockouts from his first15 wins, Dubois (21-2) lost his unbeaten record to Joe Joyce in 2020 when taking a knee for the full count in the 10th round and, despite suffering a broken orbital bone, he was labelled a quitter. That term was bandied about again after his ninth-round loss to the aforementioned Usyk 13 months ago, when the Greenwich native gave a good account of himself but stayed down when floored by what appeared to be a relatively innocuous jab.

Dubois was well ahead on the scorecard when given some very tricky moments by the relentless Jarrell Miller, but he came through them to stop the American with seconds remaining of their 10-rounder. That earned him a return to Saudi Arabia to face the unbeaten Filip Hrgovic and, as the pair bounced bombs off each other’s heads from the get-go, it was the will of Dubois that prevailed, as the cuts above the Croat’s eyes were deemed too serious to continue. As well as proving there is there no issue with Dubois’ chin, those victories confirmed he has plenty of heart as well.

So, the once ‘mentally-weak’ Dubois has now outlasted his previous two opponents and trainer Don Charles seems to have played a huge part in that. The man they call ‘Dynamite’ is full of confidence right now and being awarded the IBF title ahead of this bout should have taken his self-belief to a new level.

That also gives Joshua the chance to become a three-time champion and, with all the experience and pedigree on his side, the 2012 Olympic gold medallist is rightly the favourite here at 3/10. The 34-year-old has been there and done it on these huge stadium shows before, including his biggest victory to date against Wladimir Klitschko (TKO11) at this same venue.

ALSO READ: JOSHUA v DUBOIS THE BIG QUESTIONS

That was over seven years ago now, though, and there are plenty who believe this is the right time for Dubois, who can be backed at 7/2 and is still relatively young in heavyweight terms. The 27-year-old was chief support when Tyson Fury beat Derek Chisora at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in 2022 and he challenged Usyk in front of 50,000 fans in Poland, so he’s no stranger to the big stage.

As always with two big heavyweights, the appeal is that somebody’s lights could be switched out at any moment and this one is no different. They can both bang and are good finishers when they get somebody hurt, which why it’s only 1/4 for it to not go the distance. In the total rounds market, it is even-money for over 7.5 and I see this one going beyond the halfway mark.

Plenty has been spoken about the number of right hands that Hrgovic landed on Dubois in June and how he can’t afford to take that many of those from Joshua. While this is certainly true, Hrgovic throws a lot more leather than AJ, who hits harder than the Croat but remains very selective with the power shots he commits to, especially early on. That volume approach from Hrgovic caused Dubois to reply in kind, but he isn’t usually quite as gung-ho.

Joshua is not bulletproof either, as we saw against Ruiz, and Dubois certainly hits harder than the Mexican. Rumours are rife that Joshua was seriously wobbled in the last sparring session he had with Dubois, and that is why they haven’t sparred since.

Arguably the best attribute of both men is their jab and that is where I believe this fight will be decided, with a battle of the lead left hands on the cards early doors. Joshua has become more reliant on that shot since being knocked out and he mixes it up really well to body and head. Far from being a range-finder, Dubois’ is a real ramrod jab and is a weapon in itself.

They are both fully aware of the power that the other man possesses and this all leads me to believe it could be a cagey affair in the opening rounds, as they both look to establish their jabs. That said, it’s hard to see it not catching fire at some point and, when it does, the huge crowd should then get their money’s worth.

If Dubois is going to win then it seems sure to be via a stoppage, so the 9/2 about that outcome could tempt plenty in. The favourite will have to be particularly wary of the left hook, as that is a punch the underdog throws especially well and both Whyte and Ruiz rocked Joshua badly with the same shot.

However, Joshua is the much more rounded fighter and that could be the deciding factor.

You can argue that his last two victories don’t amount to that much, with Wallin a very familiar, yet in-form, former sparring partner, and Ngannou having only his second boxing contest. It was not who he beat but how he beat that pair, though, and the swagger is certainly back with AJ. Having proved he still has a lot to offer, he is a more complete package than Dubois and has really thrived since being active again over the last year or so.

Joshua is 1/2 to register a fourth stoppage victory on the bounce and I wouldn’t argue with those odds, but I much prefer the 2/1 about him winning in rounds 7-12. On both occasions that Dubois has been beaten, it has come in the second half of the fight and that trend may continue here.

Dubois’ chin is sturdy enough to hold up to the early fire, but possibly not the sustained heavy shelling as the fight goes on and Joshua carries his power until late in the fight. When the fireworks do arrive, I expect Joshua to be the last man standing.

Denny v Sheeraz

As I previously mentioned, the support card is a cracker and it’s stacked full of top British talent. For me, the brightest prospect of them all is Hamzah Sheeraz, and I fancy him to get rid of Tyler Denny in style.

Still only 25, Sheeraz (20-0) has looked a different animal since stepping up to middleweight and has stopped all six opponents since doing so (14 KOs on the bounce in total). He passed an acid test against fellow unbeaten prospect Austin ‘Ammo’ Williams with flying colours in Riyadh at the start of June, as he dominated the American before the referee halted the beating in the 11th round. None of his previous five opponents made it past the fifth session and I don’t think Denny will do either.

Denny (19-2-3) enters as European champion after a string of victories as the underdog, most recently against Felix Cash via a technical decision when the latter was cut by an accidental clash of heads. He may be used to upsetting the odds but he’s a 7/1 chance here and it looks a step too far for him.

At 6’3”, Sheeraz is huge for the weight and uses his long levers to generate serious power as he whips in his shots. He proved against Williams that he has no issue with southpaws and fellow ‘lefty’ Denny appears an easier assignment.

Sheeraz looks to do damage from the off and I don’t think Denny has the pop on his shots to keep his man off, so I like the favourite to record another stoppage victory inside the first six rounds. That outcome is odds-on in places and the 6/4 with Sky Bet rates good value.

Cacace v Warrington

Liam Smith pulling out of his intriguing clash with Josh Kelly (1/2) was a blow, but full credit to Ishmael Davis (2/1) for stepping in at short notice to ensure we still have a serious fight on our hands.

Willy Hutchinson (5/2) punched his ticket to this payday with a big win over Craig Richards and he could give Josh Buatsi (4/9) this biggest test of his career to date.

If pushed, my picks would be Kelly and Buatsi by decision, but I see little value in the 10/11 and 6/4, respectively, about those outcomes. However, one Josh I do think is overpriced is Josh Warrington, who steps up to super featherweight to challenge Anthony Cacace.

Cacace (22-1) is warm 4/9 favourite after ripping the IBF super featherweight belt from Joe Cordina in a big upset. On paper, that eighth-round TKO of the previously unbeaten Welshman justifies his odds here, but Cordina’s weight-making troubles seemed to play a big part that night and Cacace might just have been in the right place at right time. Also, the Belfast southpaw hit an unguarded Cordina on the break in the third round and that certainly changed the direction of the fight.

If you take that win away, then Warrington would be nowhere near as big as 2/1 here. The two-time featherweight champion may have lost three of his last five (one draw), but the razor-thin decision could have gone either way when he lost his IBF strap to Luiz Alberto Lopez. Then, he was boxing out of his skin against Leigh Wood last time before the latter pulled a fight-ending combination out of nowhere in the final seconds of the seventh session.

Cacace had an injury-ravaged and stop-start career prior to the Cordina success, a result that may well have flattered him and I wouldn’t be taking 4/9 about the 35-year-old.

Admittedly, there is a chance that Warrington’s chin may be gone, and he is the smaller man here. However, being allowed an extra 4lb could be a big positive at 33 and he showed he still has plenty left in the tank prior to being stopped by Wood. With much more experience on the big stage than his opponent, I am happy to take the 2/1 about Warrington against an older opponent.

Preview posted at 1500 BST on 20/09/24

Joshua vs Dubois: Full fight card

• MAIN EVENT: Anthony Joshua vs Daniel Dubois
  IBF heavyweight world title
• Josh Kelly vs Ishmael Davis
• Joshua Buatsi vs Willy Hutchinson
  WBO 'interim' light-heavyweight belt
• Anthony Cacace vs Josh Warrington
  IBF super-featherweight world title
• Tyler Denny vs Hamzah Sheeraz
• Mark Chamberlain vs Josh Padley

Boxing: Related content

• Ranking the heavyweights
• Official heavyweight rankings
• Big fight TV schedule
• British boxing classics