Grand National weights analysis and tip | Timeform's view
Timeform's chase handicapper Phil Turner identifies the horses of interest following the release of the Grand National weights on Tuesday.
The Irish had to settle for minor honours in the Grand National last season when Corach Rambler, trained by Lucinda Russell, became the first horse based in Britain to win the race since his stablemate One For Arthur was successful in 2017. However, the next six home were trained in Ireland and the runner-up, Vanillier, is likely to be a big player again after he was handed a BHA mark only 4 lb higher than the mark he competed from last year (Corach Rambler must run off 13 lb higher).
Timeform's chase handicapper Phil Turner said: "Irish yards have won four of the last five renewals and look to have another strong hand this year. Indeed, it’s not out of the question Vanillier would have made it five in a row last year had he been asked for his effort earlier and he tops the Timeform ratings at this stage.
"Admittedly, the statistics are rather stacked against Gavin Cromwell's contender given that Red Rum (in 1977) is the last National runner-up to go one better 12 months later, but a BHA mark of 151 – just 4 lb higher than last year – still looks generous for a Grade 1-winning hurdler who’s clearly had another campaign geared around keeping his powder dry until the weights were released.”
Horses trained in Ireland dominate the list of Grand National entries and are responsible for four of the five highest-rated contenders on Timeform's adjusted figures following the release of the weights on Tuesday. Mahler Mission is one of those prominent on Timeform's ratings and Turner is expecting a bold bid from John McConnell's stable star.
Turner said: "Mahler Mission arguably makes the most appeal at this stage. He was set to easily defeat subsequent Grand National third Gaillard du Mesnil when tipping up in last year’s National Hunt Chase and fully confirmed that form when an excellent second in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time in what promises to be this season’s strongest piece of handicap chase form on British soil.
"Despite that late Cheltenham fall, Mahler Mission is an assured jumper and his prominent style of racing is likely to prove ideally suited to the demands of Aintree. All in all, he ticks the most boxes at this stage – although it’s worth remembering that plenty can change between now and April 13th."
Turner added: "For those looking for attractive outsiders, then you could do a lot worse than the Gordon Elliott-trained Delta Work and Galvin. Admittedly, the law of averages suggest they may prove vulnerable to younger legs but they still have plenty of back class to draw on and BHA marks in the mid-150s are clearly potentially lenient for horses who were genuine Cheltenham Gold Cup contenders in the recent past – indeed, Delta Work is currently trading at three times the price he was sent off in the 2023 Grand National."
Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings for the 2024 Grand National
183 - VANILLIER
182 - DELTA WORK
182 – LE MILOS
181 – CHEMICAL ENERGY
181 – MAHLER MISSION
180p – MONBEG GENIUS
180 – CLASSIC GETAWAY
180x – FAROUK D’ALENE
179 – ELDORADO ALLEN
179 – GALVIN
179 – PANDA BOY
179 – SALVADOR ZIGGY
Selected others
178 – CONFLATED
178 – CORACH RAMBLER
178 – NOBLE YEATS
177 – CAPODANNO
177 – KITTY’S LIGHT
177 – MR INCREDIBLE
177 - THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
176 – HEWICK
175+ - NASSALAM
170+ - LATENIGHTPASS
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