When the slate of 2024 London games were first revealed, few would have predicted that the Minnesota Vikings would arrive on these shores as favourites over the New York Jets.
But, after a scintillating – if surprising – start to life with Sam Darnold as the team’s primary passer, the Vikings are indeed favoured by 2.5 points to defeat Aaron Rodgers’ Jets this weekend.
We won with the Vikings last week as they were underestimated by the handicapper in Lambeau Field and – if I was to lean a certain way – I’d have a hard time picking against Minnesota again.
They’re 4-0, can throw everything at this game thanks to the bye week that follows it and – frankly – they’ve been the best overall team in the NFL so far this season.
However, the spread is a little more like it this week and there are a couple of factors that turn me off a straightforward handicap selection. We don’t know how the travel to London on a standard seven-day turnaround will affect Minnesota and Aaron Rodgers’ poor performance a week ago is unlikely to be repeated.
One of the biggest storylines in the early part of the season revolves around Washington quarterback JAYDEN DANIELS and just how good the rookie has looked.
He’s led the Commanders to a 3-1 record and his performances have many assuming that the annual offensive rookie of the year contest is already over.
His completion percentage is yet to dip below 70% (it was as high as 91% against the Bengals) and just in case his accurate passing wasn’t enough, he’s proven himself to be a true dual-threat QB.
Along with his 897 passing yards, Daniels has contributed heavily in the ground game, picking up at least 39 yards in each of his outings so far. He carried eight times against Arizona and remarkably that was his season-low, having ran the ball a combined 38 times against Cincinnati, New York and Tampa Bay.
Offensively, the Baltimore Ravens went back to basics last week with a tried and tested method.
Feed Derrick Henry.
The ninth-year pro ran all over the Bills, taking 24 carries for 199 yards and a touchdown. It resulted in a dominant 35-10 win and indicated that Baltimore’s season is firmly now on track.
It would be crazy for the Ravens to divert from a winning model this week, so I suspect we’ll see much of the same from Baltimore as they take on the Bengals in a divisional match-up.
Sunday’s opponents Cincinnati are statistically better against the run than Buffalo this season, but not significantly. The Bengals’ defence are giving up 145.5 rushing yards per game so far at a rate of 4.4 per carry. That ranks them eighth-worst in the NFL.
Cincy may have what it takes to concede fewer rushing yards than Buffalo but stuffing the #1 rush-attack in football to any kind of reasonable degree will be some ask, and it’s very likely beyond them.
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