Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season is brought in by San Francisco 49ers travelling to Seattle to face the Seahawks, and these are two teams coming off extremely disappointing losses.
It was all going so well for the Seahawks, with new head coach Mike Macdonald guiding his team to a 3-0 win, with his brand-new defence dominating. But perhaps what was lost in the hype was the opposition, having faced Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. Since then, Seattle has faced back-to-back losses to the Lions and shockingly the Giants.
Meanwhile, the 49ers sit at 2-3 now on the season, and all three of their losses have come when they were heavy favourites, against the Vikings (-4), Rams (-6) and the Cardinals (-7). Last time out it was simple, painful mistakes that were costing the team – with costly turnovers and their kicker getting injured. This feels like a crisis point for the 49ers, in a must-win spot. But we’ve seen them in this position before:
Last season the 9ers lost three in a row in games where they were heavily favoured (Browns, Vikings & Bengals) – they proceeded to beat the Jaguars by 31 points and went on a 6-game winning streak. The year before that, the 9ers began the season 3-4, but responded with a 31-14 win over the Rams, to kick off a 10-game winning streak. The Seahawks are banged up to say the least right now, and their offensive line is a liability – Geno Smith was sacked seven times by the Giants. This is an opportunity that the 9ers need to expose.
One way to expose that is through the running game. Jordan Mason has filled in exceptionally for Christian McCaffrey, and whilst he had a costly fumble last time out – I predict him to thrive here. The Seahawks have been stout against the pass – conceding the 7th fewest passing yards in the league, but they’re soft against the run – allowing 553 rushing yards to running backs, the 8th most in the NFL. Giants’ rookie Tyrone Tracy racked up 129 yards from just 18 carries, and in the previous week Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery produced 118 rushing yards and scored 3 touchdowns combined.
For the Seahawks, a player in a great spot is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. DK Metcalf started the season on fire with 3 straight 100+ yard games but was held to just 55 yards against the Giants. In his last six games against the 9ers he’s been held to fewer than 60 yards. JSN is flashing and starting to get more involved in the Seahawks passing game – and crucially the 9ers are allowing an average of 78 receiving yards (4th most in NFL) to slot receivers. Nearly 80% of JSN’s snaps come from the slot – this is a moment where he can thrive.
Despite how the numbers may look, Brock Purdy is playing better than ever before. It has been a slow start to the season for the 49ers, with a lot of outside noise, but this is a key moment for them. They have won 5 straight games against the Seahawks, and Geno has struggled greatly in the past (0-3 record, averaging 205 passing yards/game, thrown 1 TD & 2 ints). The Seahawks are heavily banged up and coming off a short week, it’s going to be difficult to stop the 49ers. Expect Kyle Shanahan’s unit to bounce back and make a statement.
Posted at 1105 BST on 09/10/24
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