BILLY HORSCHEL has enjoyed a resurgence of sorts lately, winning in the Dominican Republic, and it was striking how well he hit the ball on day one of the PGA Championship.
Horschel had driven it nicely in the Wells Fargo only for his irons to misfire, but they were excellent yesterday and that's always been the department Horschel relies on to produce his best golf.
It's a big advantage over the more powerful Min Woo Lee, who holed a lot of putts but still shot 72, losing by a couple of shots. Chris Kirk meanwhile was a further stroke worse than Lee despite also holing more than his share.
We're taking a bit of a risk here because Lee is dangerous on a long course like this one, but combine Horschel's opening round with a particularly strong record on Nicklaus-designed courses and 2/1 looks a bit of a bargain to my eye. You can make a case that these three players are of almost identical abilities at present, so the form pick among them perhaps ought to be favourite.
It's a big day for Jon Rahm, who may still feel like he can somehow salvage this week despite being four-over through six holes. Five-under for the remaining 12, he deserves credit for remaining afloat for this long and if he can shoot a mid-60s score he could at least keep the leaders in sight.
If that sounds optimistic, well, it is, and he'll certainly need to putt a lot better, while ridding himself of the left miss with the irons which plagued him from the very first hole. Watching great players fight is always interesting and I'll look forward to seeing how he does.
Certainly, he looks a fair price at odds-against to beat Cam Young and Rickie Fowler. Young lost strokes with his ball-striking and benefited from an atypically excellent day on and around the greens, whereas Fowler hit it well but made nothing.
Both are close enough to good golf, I suspect, and I'm wary enough of Young to leave Rahm out on balance.
Outright selection SAM BURNS will have been frustrated with his first round, as for the most part he hit the ball to a high standard but couldn't get anything to drop, meaning he didn't have a cushion when his one stray drive did come along.
He can do better today and I fancy him to overturn Patrick Reed, who was three shots better. Reed's irons were impressive but on a long, soft course, I give the edge to Burns if he can close the gap on the greens.
With Padraig Harrington complaining of neck spasms and a long way off the pace, this should be a match. Back the superior player in the here and now, which is Burns, to overcome the former Masters champion.
STEPHAN JAEGER is enjoying a breakout season and it all stems from the additional ball speed he's found, which has seen him improve from an average driver to an excellent one.
That club is used again and again at Valhalla, which played soft on day one of the PGA Championship. With more rain to come on Friday and the sub-air system unable to prevent greens from being receptive, the big hitters should dominate once all is said and done.
Jaeger was the best ball-striker in the entire morning wave on day one (Martin Kaymer was second in a German 1-2) and while his numbers will almost certainly dip to some degree on Friday, we can expect him to putt a good deal better, too.
Ultimately he has a big edge over Russell Henley off the tee and it could be decisive. Henley also shot 70 in the first round and he too missed putts, but not nearly as many as Jaeger, who is better suited by conditions.
Lucas Glover completes the group but can be opposed having struggled despite a good day on the greens. Take Jaeger to thrash his way to a sub-70 round.
It took a 12-foot birdie putt at the final hole for BYEONG HUN AN to scrape a dead-heat in the first round but he can make things a bit less dramatic on Friday.
There's always a chance An has an off day on the greens and that's exactly what happened, but last week's leader in putting has become especially volatile lately and it wouldn't surprise me were he to do much better.
Regardless, his playing partners remain particularly vulnerable. Eric Cole struggled from tee-to-green just as expected and it's unfortunate that his short-game was as good as it has been all year, while Alex Bjork did indeed rely almost solely on his putter.
Bjork may well gain another couple of strokes on the greens as that's his strength, but this place will continue to be a slog for such a short hitter. Granted a second crack at this, I will be disappointed if An doesn't take care of business at the same sort of price.
There are once again some appealing options involving PGA club professionals, Sami Valimaki at 5/4 the pick of them, but I'll keep to those likely to be priced up by a number of bookmakers, among which KURT KITAYAMA rates the bet of the evening.
Kitayama won this three-ball on Thursday and he did so comfortably, beating Peter Malnati by four and Victor Perez by 11. It wasn't a surprise to see Malnati produce a humdrum round as he's a very short driver playing a very long course, but Perez's recent play had been enough to put me off siding with Kitayama.
However, the Frenchman was abysmal, only John Daly and a club pro hitting it worse, and he'll do well to remedy things with all hope of making the cut now gone. Kitayama, longer off the tee, has been hitting his irons to a high standard all year and this is an easier version of the test he passed to win at Bay Hill for his breakthrough in 2023.
Getting odds-against Kitayama looks good business and the fact I still consider Perez the danger despite the way he played yesterday says a lot.
Posted at 0755 BST on 17/05/24
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