ALEX NOREN will be spying a big week at Sawgrass, where at his best he's shown plenty of promise before. On debut the Swede finished 10th, then on his return he was bang in the mix until a third-round 77 derailed his title bid, before responding with a six-under 66 for 17th.
With a win at the similar Le Golf National to his name and having been ninth in Florida last time, he's an outsider of some interest and I did weigh up backing him to be the top continental European, given Viktor Hovland's struggles (relatively speaking) and the fact that Ludvig Aberg is making his debut in the event.
On balance though the way to play Noren is in a three-ball against two bigger hitters who are less suited to this positional golf course. Joseph Bramlett has missed both previous cuts, shooting a combined 10-over for his four rounds, and isn't hitting the ball as well as he can at the moment. Thomas Detry's putter has cooled alarmingly, and he opened with a round of 78 on debut before fighting back well with a 69.
Detry is the bigger danger but Noren's superior accuracy, approach work and putting combine to make him an appealing bet at odds-against.
There's plenty to like about TOM HOGE this week, except the price – I felt he was plenty short enough at 50-66/1 given his limitations, even if right now there may be no better iron player on the PGA Tour.
He is though ideal for a three-ball wager as he's in excellent form, is as reliable as they come, and boasts a solid Sawgrass record. Hoge has made the cut on all five visits, with 16 of his 19 rounds here par or better. We'll just need to dodge that shocking 78 from day one last year, from which he recovered to somehow finish third.
Given that Camilo Villegas has been in modest form since his shock win in Bermuda late last year, and hasn't been a factor here for more than a decade, this looks a match between Hoge and Lee Hodges, a similarly no-frills golfer. Hodges is playing nicely but in six rounds here he's a combined 18-over, failing to better 72 as yet.
As mentioned, Hoge has produced that score or better almost every time he's played the Stadium Course, so odds-against prices should be snapped up.
This is Corey Conners' time of year and it would be no surprise were he to bag a second PLAYERS top-10. The Canadian is hitting the ball beautifully, as you might expect, and any kind of putting improvement would make him a major factor at a course where his precision really does count.
He was a bit of a flop last year but had shown promise on all three previous starts and his form coming in looks stronger, having made every cut since the US Open last June. It would be disappointing if we can't rely on him to shoot something around level par at worst.
By contrast, Davis Riley has been in dire form for a while now, failing to crack the top 30 in 10 starts and missing four cuts out of five this season. That run ended last time but 62nd in the Cognizant is not strong form and he shot 71-77 on his PLAYERS debut last year, at a time when he's just finished eighth at Bay Hill.
JJ Spaun has missed every cut so far this year and hasn't shot better than 71 in the first round since November. He's driving it poorly and his short-game is even worse, so with form figures of MC-WD-MC-MC here, something in the mid-70s would be about his limit unless something improves on Thursday.
Conners looks the banker of the day on paper.
Finally, ERIC COLE showed plenty of promise on his debut here and the Florida resident looks set for another good week.
He flopped at PGA National a couple of weeks ago but expectations were high then and he had to deal with returning to the course where he ought to have won a year earlier. It was good to see him bounce back with 21st at Bay Hill, and Sawgrass is a better course for him.
Cole was 27th on debut despite a slow start, shooting weekend rounds of 69-68, and even another opening 73 might be enough to win this three-ball against two players who finished down the field in Puerto Rico last week.
Ben Martin has been fourth here but his 10 subsequent rounds have all been 70-plus and Harry Hall, who can be wild off the tee at times, makes his debut in the event. Last week's resort-style layout would've suited far better than this one and while he's in decent nick, he's a level or two below Cole before we take the course into account.
Posted at 1100 GMT on 12/03/24
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