ADAM SCOTT failed to land the money with Thursday's headline selection but if anything, the fact that he managed a dead-heat to claw stakes back only serves to reinforce how superior he is to his playing partners, because he was well below his best.
Hopefully we see more of the player who has been excellent for several months now as around his favoured Riviera, that would be enough to comfortably account for his playing partners, both of whom struck the ball poorly.
Alex Smalley in particular was all at sea, ranking last but one in strokes-gained approach and not much better off the tee. This is in keeping with his struggles over the past month. Taylor Montgomery meanwhile was 63rd off the tee and 61st with his approaches, which in a field of 70 marks him down as one of the very worst ball-strikers on day one.
Scott wasn't that much better, but he was nevertheless better (by almost two strokes to Montgomery and four to Smalley), and that's on an off day. He was also in command early, putting from close range to go three-under through five, and there's absolutely no hesitation in having a second crack at the same price. He should improve.
Tom Hoge won this three-ball on day one and has been trimmed for day two accordingly, but Harris English might just take the money today.
English hit the ball really well yesterday only to struggle on and around the greens, the gap between him and Hoge almost covering the three strokes the former ultimately won by. Given that English boasts one of the best short-games in this field, Hoge may need to continue striping his irons (which is possible) to maintain his advantage.
Keegan Bradley is favourite and understandably so but his putter is far less likely to come alive so I was fairly keen on English, but at 19/10 the price looks about right. I was hoping we might be able to get something upwards of 2/1 and he can be left out.
Seamus Power returned from almost five months on the sidelines at The Sentry in January, and he's looked some way below his best. That continued on Thursday, when he shot 74 despite putting well, and it'll be a major surprise if he can win this three-ball. Odds of 3/1 overrate him.
In a likely match between Denny McCarthy and ADAM SVENSSON, siding with the superior ball-striker, who edged this group by a stroke on Thursday but remains a slight second-favourite, makes plenty of appeal.
Svensson's performance had a pleasing look to it as he did everything well; in contrast, as you might expect McCarthy got better the closer he got to the hole. He's far less reliable off the tee and with his approaches than Svensson, and if Riviera's greens dry out that gap will only expand.
Svensson is a really nice player who can win again this season, and under these conditions he should arguably be favourite for all that McCarthy has been edging towards his own breakthrough.
LUDVIG ABERG continues to take everything in his stride and it seems reasonable to expect him to improve as he goes at Riviera, a course he'd never played until this week.
Thursday's three-under 68 was still enough to win his three-ball, despite some poor putting throughout. In fact both Christiaan Bezuidenhout (15th) and Nick Hardy (ninth) significantly outperformed him in that department, but still it wasn't enough.
Hardy shot 76 despite his putter and is very easy to oppose, while Bezuidenhout's lack of firepower leaves him vulnerable especially if he's approaching greens which ought to firm up with less loft in his hand than Aberg, already well established as a better golfer.
An average putting day should do the trick. Anything better and it may not be especially close.
Posted at 0840 GMT on 16/02/24
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