We're nine events into the PGA Tour season and, so far, the most obvious winner was Jake Knapp. Two major champions feature along with four first-timers, but both were returning to form at big prices and one, Wyndham Clark, didn't really win. Nick Dunlap did, and he was an amateur at the time. So did a Frenchman, the first ever, and Matthieu Pavon still leads the FedEx Cup.

Whatever your preferences, be they to see the world's best players taking each other on regularly (bad luck with that one) or to see unheralded ones given opportunities to achieve great things, surely we can find consensus on this point of view: the PGA Tour could really do with some world-class players fighting it out, and this needs to take place on a Sunday night.

It would be wrong to declare it certain at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, after 200/1 shot Kurt Kitayama gazumped them all a year ago, but it does seem likely. Bay Hill is a long, hard par 72, Florida's impression of what some would consider a typical US Open. It is penal everywhere, from water to rough to lightning-quick greens, and if Saturday's forecast wind materialises, you can throw that into the equation too.

Such tests lend themselves to producing elite champions and the size and nature of the field does, too. There is a cut, as was the case at Riviera last month, but with just 69 players taking part in the first place, few will suffer that fate. The flaw in the plan is that a smaller field played some part in the fact that Hideki Matsuyama had that tournament won well before the final hole.

As for what's required to conquer Bay Hill, strong driving is a good place to start. Short hitters have gradually been squeezed out of this down the years but it's not the driver-wedge stuff you sometimes see thrown up at this level, with more mid-to-long irons than just about anywhere else on the schedule. Again, that dynamic helps those who can land a six-iron as softly as some would land an eight or nine and that's reflected in results.

For course comparisons, Scottsdale stands out among those visited so far this season. Kitayama's form there reads 23-8, Matt Every won twice here having began his Phoenix Open career with two top-10s, Martin Laird has four of them, and surprise Bay Hill winner Rod Pampling played well there down the years. Oh, and Scottie Scheffler, of course, who did the double in 2022.

Scheffler is favourite and it may be that he putts well enough to win, but outside of the Hero Challenge, he hasn't had a top-30 putting week in more than a year now. That club helped him to win here but cost him the title in 2023 and, metronomic in the chances he creates, it will again determine exactly how high up this leaderboard he finishes.

But I prefer RORY MCILROY, who has a couple of potential advantages over Scheffler and can be backed at the same price as last year, despite the absences of Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, and former Bay Hill champion Tyrrell Hatton.

Unlikely Scheffler, McIlroy warmed up in Florida last week and that might just help. He was right in the mix until making a mess of the Bear Trap in round three, but there's a positive spin to be put on that too as it meant he was able to finish his final round on Sunday, rather than return on Monday as so many others did.

Come the end of that tournament the numbers painted a familiar picture: exceptional off-the-tee, modest with his approaches, and not good enough with the putter to compete with a brilliant winner in Austin Eckroat.

We will need to see the putter improve but some of the best numbers of his career helped him to win this title in 2018 and what's certain is that nobody in the game is driving the ball better, which is vital. McIlroy is seldom bad in this department, of course, but leading the field three times in four is sensational even by his standards.