Premier League title: Liverpool gifted chance by Arsenal and Man City squad planning errors
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
We entered a third international break of the season off the back of a scrappy draw at Stamford Bridge that saw Arsenal surrender further ground in the title race, harking bark to late August now may appear a little irrelevant, or worse self-indulgent.
Having begun the season with successive wins, the cult of Mikel Arteta and enthusiasm for his project was at an all-time high, so much so that the loan signing of Raheem Sterling was almost universally applauded rather than questioned.
Great deal. No lose situation.
The fact Sterling has since started only twice in the Premier League, on the pitch for just 97 minutes across those two matches, is not damning in itself, nor is Arsenal's current position of fourth in the table, nine points adrift of leaders Liverpool.
But Sterling's ineligibility for Sunday's trip to parent club Chelsea brought into stark clarity that Arsenal's signing of him, even that they would consider it in the first place, may just be where this season's title race was lost. Or won.
Elsewhere, the team now five points clear at the top was being heavily scrutinised for a lack of business, eventually signing just one, fairly forgettable, player.
Hindsight - or not?
Premier League title winner odds
- Liverpool - 6/5
- Manchester City - 2/1
- Arsenal - 4/1
- Chelsea - 20/1
- Tottenham - 66/1
Odds correct at 1950 GMT (10/11/24)
I'm not one to admonish the work Arteta has done since returning to The Emirates - quite the opposite.
Arsenal's project is worthy of admiration, not least because it goes way beyond any one individual. This week's news that Edu had left as director of football led to quite the overreaction in terms of how pivotal he was, with not nearly enough scrutiny on his final transfer window at the helm.
The backbone of Arsenal's progression in recent years has been excellent recruitment. Building a stronger team, and squad, window upon window. The summer of 2024 is the first time in the Arteta era they got it badly wrong.
For a combined £75m, a left-back and combative central midfielder arrived, areas where Arsenal were perhaps most well-stocked.
The early-season injury to Martin Odegaard on the heels of Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira's summer exits exposed the reality that Arsenal possess just one creative central midfielder, hence Arteta's subsequent tinkering to mitigate the loss of his captain, and desperate cries for unproven 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri to be thrown in despite no-one really knowing if he's any good.
With Odegaard back, all may be well again, but be wary of the inevitable "judge us at the end of the season", "trust the process" brigade.
Should Arsenal somehow win the Premier League for the first time since 2004, or the Champions League for the first time in their history, it will have been achieved despite what happened last summer, not because of it.
And they aren't the only ones to fall foul to bad squad planning.
The idea that any Ballon d'Or winner is irreplaceable is fair. The idea you can't plan for their absence is misguided.
In the summer of 2022, Manchester City were acutely aware ahead of the mid-season World Cup that the workload on Rodri would be higher than ever, hence signing two central midfielders: the ultimately disastrous Kalvin Phillips, and Mateo Kovacic.
Over the next two years, a centre-back, two wingers, and an attacking midfielder were signed.
Barcelona's soon to be 34-year-old Ilkay Gundogan arrived on a free transfer days before the most recent deadline to try and plug the obvious gap after, like Sterling, he was deemed surplus to requirements by a new manager.
This was roundly branded a bargain, not highlighted as indicative of deeper rooted issues.
Three months on and Pep Guardiola has lost a fourth straight match for the first time as Manchester City manager.
And then there's Liverpool.
Under the microscope following Jurgen Klopp's departure, any hints of potential cracks were considered fair game as signs of likely regression in Arne Slot's first season.
Martín Zubimendi's decision to stay at Real Sociedad was very much one of those, joining the apparently destabilising, unresolved contract negotiations with Virgil van Dijk, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah.
By signing only Federico Chiesa, Liverpool were considered ill-equipped for the challenges ahead. But Liverpool's resolve not to sign anyone of major significance should have told us so much.
Two years prior they acted in the complete opposite manner, bringing Arthur Melo in on a season-long loan from Juventus only for the Brazilian to feature for 13 minutes across what was an utterly wretched 2022/23 for the whole club.
Now Liverpool possess quite literally two first-team players in every position through long-term squad planning.
That is no better epitomised than by the Reds being without the best goalkeeper in the world for most of this season and it barely being noticed; even with his ultimate £29m successor currently on loan at Valencia.
Having won 14 of their first 16 matches in all competitions, the 8/1 antepost outsiders are now as short as even money to win just their second league title in 35 years.
Foresight is a wonderful thing.
And Liverpool are the only ones who had it.
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